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The 2013 NBA Draft: Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA) Rankings

 

Yeah, I know the draft is already underway. Sue me, I've been busy. Won't go too deep into the weeds on this. Below are the scores each player received in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA), which is my attempt at developing a system to objectively evaluate NCAA draft prospects.

YODA uses box score stats that have been run through a stat formula I've developed to measure a player's overall productivity. It includes adjustments for a prospects age, athletic/physical tools, and his team's strength of schedule.

Below are the prospects with first round grades in YODA and their YODA score. The top score in YODA history is a 36, which was posted by Shaquille O'Neal in his sophomore season. Here's how monstrous that season was: the next best was Anthony Davis...with a 28.

2013 Overall YODA Ratings

  1. Victor Oladipo -- SG, Indiana -- 19
  2. Cody Zeller -- PF, Indiana -- 14
  3. Nerlens Noel -- C, Kentucky -- 9
  4. Ben McLemore -- SG, Kansas -- 8
  5. Otto Porter -- SF, Georgetown -- 8
  6. Steven Adams -- C, Pittsburgh -- 8
  7. Anthony Bennett -- PF, Nevada-Las Vegas -- 8
  8. Trey Burke -- PG, Michigan -- 7
  9. Kelly Olynyk -- C, Gonzaga -- 7
  10. Michael Carter-Williams -- PG, Syracuse -- 6
  11. Gorgui Dieng -- C, Louisville -- 6
  12. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -- SG, Georgia -- 6
  13. Shane Larkin -- PG, Miami (FL) -- 6
  14. Reggie Bullock -- SF, North Carolina -- 5
  15. C.J. McCollum -- SG, Lehigh -- 5
  16. Tyrus McGee -- SG, Iowa State -- 4
  17. Jeff Withey -- C, Kansas -- 4
  18. Mason Plumlee -- PF, Duke -- 3
  19. Shabazz Muhammad -- SF, UCLA -- 3
  20. Alex Oriakhi -- PF, Missouri -- 3
  21. Zeke Marshall -- C, Akron -- 2
  22. Nate Wolters -- PG, South Dakota State -- 2
  23. Ray McCallum -- PG, Detroit Mercy -- 2
  24. Elias Harris -- SF, Gonzaga -- 2
  25. Jamaal Franklin -- SG, San Diego State -- 2
  26. Allen Crabbe -- SG, California -- 2
  27. Gregory Echenique -- C, Creighton -- 1
  28. James Southerland -- SF, Syracuse -- 1
  29. D.J. Stephens -- PF, Memphis -- 1
  30. Carrick Felix -- SG, Arizona State -- 1
  31. Kevin Young -- SF, Kansas -- 1
  32. Mike Muscala -- C, Bucknell -- 0
  33. Solomon Hill -- SF, Arizona -- 0
  34. Ryan Broekhoff -- SF, Valpariso -- 0
  35. Pierce Hornung -- SF, Colorado State -- 0
  36. Colton Iverson -- C, Colorado State -- 0
  37. Ryan Kelly -- C, Duke -- 0
  38. Erick Green -- PG, Virginia Tech -- 0
  39. Maurice Kemp -- SF, East Carolina -- 0

That's more than enough since once a YODA score drops below a 3, the player's prospects as a pro diminish significantly. 

The most notable disagreement between YODA and the draft sites and NBA scouts is Maryland center Alex Len. Over at Draft Express, Len was listed as their top prospect in this year's draft. In the actual draft, he went 5th overall. In YODA, he ranks 43rd with a score of -1. I'm not arrogant enough to say that I'm right and DX and GMs are wrong, but I do think YODA suggests Len is not as strong a prospect as he's reputed to be. His college production wasn't impressive -- especially considering his relatively weak team and less than overwhelming schedule.

I expect to write more about the draft using YODA in a week or so when my schedule at least edges back toward normal.

Until then, Wizards fans can feel pretty good about getting Otto Porter at third overall -- sort of the SF version of Bradley Beal. Cody Zeller or Nerlens Noel also would have made good picks in that spot (since Victor Oladipo was taken with the 2nd pick), but Porter should make a good pro.

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