The Redskins best chance of making the playoffs is continued stellar play from Robert Griffin III. Getty Images
When I first began calculating Washington's
chances of reaching the playoffs, I thought the competitive
portion of their season was over. They were 3-6, and while the
remaining schedule wasn't exactly daunting, the Skins weren't
exactly daunting either.
I estimated their odds at about 1%. ESPN 980's Scott Jackson,
co-host of Inside the Locker Room, tweeted to tell me I'd
given them too much of a chance.
Since then, the Skins enjoyed a bye week in which their chances
jumped to 8% without them even playing a game, and then three
consecutive wins -- a clean sweep against NFC East opponents.
Their playoff chances improved with each game, reaching
approximately 29% before the Monday night showdown against the
Then they beat the Giants, 17-16.
Unfortunately for the Skins, they may have dug their hole a bit
too deep. Washington will make the playoffs if they win the rest
of their games to finish 10-6. And while they're likely to be
favored in each of their remaining matchups, I estimate their
chances of winning out at about 10%.
In contrast, the Skins have approximately a 69% chance of
finishing with 8 or 9 wins. Nine wins would give them a 1-in-4
shot of reaching the post-season. Eight wins would almost
certainly leave them out of the playoffs. The most likely scenario
for Washington this season is to end the season 8-8 and miss the
In full, I estimate Washington to have a 40% chance of reaching
the playoffs. That's a heckuva lot better than the 1% they had
when I first started doing this exercise, though the odds still
aren't as good as I'd like.
At any rate, here's their remaining schedule with my estimated
odds for the Skins winning each matchup: