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2012-13 NBA Power Rankings 3.0

Tim Duncan currently sits atop the Broom On the Warpath MVP list. Getty Images

Meant to get this up yesterday, but workaday stuff intervened. The numbers below are based on games played through Tuesday night.

Big crowd at the top in version 3.0 of the Broom on the Warpath NBA Power Rankings

RANK  LW  TEAM  POW 
MEM  100 
1 NYK  100 
5 OKC  99 
SAS  97 
6 MIA  94 
2 LAC  92 
9 BRK  87 
7 LAL  84 
10 ATL  82 
10  11 HOU  81 
11  20 DEN  77 
12  8 MIL  73 
13  14 UTA  72 
14  15 CHI  71 
15  18 BOS  68 
16  21 GSW  67 
17  17 PHI  67 
18  13 DAL  66 
19  16 MIN  65 
20  26 PHO  65 
21  12 POR  62 
22  22 IND  61 
23  19 NOH  58 
24  24 TOR  54 
25  27 ORL  53 
26  25 DET  52 
27  28 CLE  49 
28  23 CHA  48 
29  29 SAC  40 
30  30 WAS  37 
       

Big mover this week was Denver, leaping from 20 to 11. The Nuggets sorta switched places with Portland, which fell from 12th to 21st. I'd expect fewer big moves in coming weeks as the sample size increases and things stabilize.

With individual players now surpassing 500 total minutes, I now feel comfortable posting my first look at "awards" like Most Productive Player, 6th Man and Rookie of the Year.

The lists below are generated using my statistical rating system. It could be described as similar to John Hollinger's PER or David Berri's Wins Produced. I apply different weights to the stat categories, however. Unlike PER, I factor in defense. I believe that my system does a better job of handling offensive efficiency than either metric -- PER sets too low a bar on efficiency; Wins Produced sets the bar too high.

In my system, 100 = average, higher is better, 60 = replacement level. 

MVP

  1. Tim Duncan, SAS -- 227
  2. Kevin Durant, OKC -- 226
  3. Jason Kidd, NYK -- 222
  4. LeBron James, MIA -- 218
  5. Anderson Varejao, CLE -- 217
Interesting top 5. Duncan and Kidd are ancient, but highly productive. Kidd, in particular, is posting a preposterous offensive rating -- which he won't sustain once he's back in the lineup. The other big surprise is Varejao, who's having a terrific start to the season for Cleveland. Before you dismiss everything to do with these numbers because Varejao is in the top 5 right now, take a look at his numbers -- high efficiency on average usage, great rebounding, high assists and steals, and outstanding defense.

6th MAN

This list is generated by discounting a player's per-minute production by the proportion of games he starts.

  1. Eric Bledsoe, LAC -- 180
  2. DeMarre Carroll, UTA -- 172
  3. Andre Drummond, DET -- 170
  4. Carl Landry, GSW -- 170
  5. Ed Davis, TOR -- 169
I may revisit the methodology on this one, but the list will do for now. The high production off the bench for bad teams might suggest a move to the starting lineup for a few of these guys.

Rookie of the Year

  1. Anthony Davis, NOH -- 202
  2. Andre Drummond, DET -- 170
  3. Bernard James, DAL -- 136
  4. Maurice Harkless, ORL -- 135
  5. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA -- 128
No surprise to see Davis at the top of the list. He was the best college prospect in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA) since Shaquille O'Neal, and his per minute production already rates in the league's top 10. Biggest question would be where's Damian Lillard? He's received plenty of buzz, and he's having a good rookie season -- he ranks 6th at 122. If I'm making predictions on what to expect in the ROY list, I'd anticipate major shuffling behind Davis. Lillard will likely move into the top 5. I don't think James or Harkless will be staying.

I expect all these lists to change significantly as the season moves on, however. This is a first look only. Next time, I'll include a first look at my Diamond Rating -- a comparison of a player's per game and per minute stats designed to create a shopping list of players who might be worthy of increased playing time.

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