Tim Duncan currently sits atop the Broom On the Warpath MVP list. Getty Images
Meant to get this up yesterday, but workaday stuff intervened. The numbers below are based on games played through Tuesday night.
Big crowd at the top in version 3.0 of the Broom on the Warpath NBA Power Rankings
Big mover this week was Denver, leaping from 20 to 11. The Nuggets sorta switched places with Portland, which fell from 12th to 21st. I'd expect fewer big moves in coming weeks as the sample size increases and things stabilize.
With individual players now surpassing 500 total minutes, I now feel comfortable posting my first look at "awards" like Most Productive Player, 6th Man and Rookie of the Year.
The lists below are generated using my statistical rating system. It could be described as similar to John Hollinger's PER or David Berri's Wins Produced. I apply different weights to the stat categories, however. Unlike PER, I factor in defense. I believe that my system does a better job of handling offensive efficiency than either metric -- PER sets too low a bar on efficiency; Wins Produced sets the bar too high.
In my system, 100 = average, higher is better, 60 = replacement level.
Tim Duncan, SAS -- 227
Kevin Durant, OKC -- 226
Jason Kidd, NYK -- 222
LeBron James, MIA -- 218
Anderson Varejao, CLE -- 217
Interesting top 5. Duncan and Kidd are ancient, but highly productive. Kidd, in particular, is posting a preposterous offensive rating -- which he won't sustain once he's back in the lineup. The other big surprise is Varejao, who's having a terrific start to the season for Cleveland. Before you dismiss everything to do with these numbers because Varejao is in the top 5 right now, take a look at his numbers -- high efficiency on average usage, great rebounding, high assists and steals, and outstanding defense.
This list is generated by discounting a player's per-minute production by the proportion of games he starts.
Eric Bledsoe, LAC -- 180
DeMarre Carroll, UTA -- 172
Andre Drummond, DET -- 170
Carl Landry, GSW -- 170
Ed Davis, TOR -- 169
I may revisit the methodology on this one, but the list will do for now. The high production off the bench for bad teams might suggest a move to the starting lineup for a few of these guys.
Rookie of the Year
Anthony Davis, NOH -- 202
Andre Drummond, DET -- 170
Bernard James, DAL -- 136
Maurice Harkless, ORL -- 135
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA -- 128
No surprise to see Davis at the top of the list. He was the best college prospect in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA) since Shaquille O'Neal, and his per minute production already rates in the league's top 10. Biggest question would be where's Damian Lillard? He's received plenty of buzz, and he's having a good rookie season -- he ranks 6th at 122. If I'm making predictions on what to expect in the ROY list, I'd anticipate major shuffling behind Davis. Lillard will likely move into the top 5. I don't think James or Harkless will be staying.
I expect all these lists to change significantly as the season moves on, however. This is a first look only. Next time, I'll include a first look at my Diamond Rating -- a comparison of a player's per game and per minute stats designed to create a shopping list of players who might be worthy of increased playing time.