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Can the Redskins Make the Playoffs? Part III

For Washington to buck the odds and reach the playoffs, Ryan Kerrigan and the defense will need to improve their play in the final six games. Getty Images

For the past couple weeks, I've used the team strength measures at Advanced NFL Stats to estimate Washington's chance of reaching the playoffs, here and here.  Here's the third edition, updated with last week's outcomes.

Two weeks ago, I gave Washington a 1% of reaching the post-season. By last week, it had gone up to 8% after their competition lost ground while the Skins were in a bye week. After beating Philadelphia last week, Washington's odds have improved again -- to 16%. Still a longshot, but also still possible.

Here's Washington's remaining schedule with their ranks overall, on offense, on defense and the odds of the Redskins beating them (for comparison, Washington ranks 11th overall after beating Philly, 4th on offense and 23rd on defense):

@ Dallas 14  13  20  44% 
NY Giants  8 22  57% 
Baltimore 19 17  19  64%
@ Cleveland 26 29  10  52%
@ Philadelphia 25  23  16  53% 
Dallas  14  13  20  63%
Is it likely Washington reaches the playoffs this year? No -- 16% qualifies as a longshot. But, they make the remaining task more doable with each win.

Dallas will be a more formidable opponent than the Eagles, who were starting a rookie QB behind an offensive line missing three starters. But, the Skins have a coin flip or better chance of winning each of their remaining games. Now it's time to go do it.