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Can the Redskins Make the Playoffs? Part II

Redskins improved their chances of reaching the playoffs without even playing a game last week.

Last week, I used team strength measures from Advanced NFL Stats to estimate that the Washington Redskins had about a 1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Subsequently, the league played a week's worth of games, the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles lost, and those odds are now...a week old.

"Playoffs" have become the Redskins meme of the week with various looks posted by Rick SniderMark Maske, and Rich Tandler. The takeaway from each of these is the same: it's possible for the Redskins to reach the playoffs, but not likely.

With another week's worth of games in the books, Washington's odds of making the post-season actually improved without playing a game.

Here's a table showing the rankings of Washington and their remaining opponents (overall, offense and defense):

TEAM  OVERALL  OFFENSE  DEFENSE 
Redskins  18  24 
       
Philadelphia 20 23  13 
at Dallas 10  16 
New York Giants 13  20 
Baltimore  17  12  23 
at Cleveland 26  29  10 
at Philadelphia 20 23  13 
Dallas 10 8 16

Here are estimated probabilities that Washington will win the games remaining on their schedule based on information available at this point -- I'll update this weekly (so long as it's relevant).

  • Philadelphia -- 60%
  • at Dallas -- 35%
  • New York Giants -- 53%
  • Baltimore -- 59%
  • at Cleveland -- 47%
  • at Philadelphia -- 42%
  • Dallas -- 52%
The odds of Washington winning all of their remaining games is about 1%. It could happen, but it's extremely unlikely.

I still think Washington needs 6 wins -- a record of 9-7 -- to have a realistic hope of reaching the post-season. Odds of doing that: about 8%.

So, there you have it -- Washington's odds of reaching the playoffs went from about 1% last week to about 8% this week without them even having to play a game.

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